According to Avine McNally, Assistant Director of the Small Firms Association, "no business should be adapting a "wait and see approach", as it is not possible to say with certainty what the impact of a pandemic will be on any business or how quickly the pandemic could take hold. Implementing a specific business contingency plan (or updating an existing plan) for a severe pandemic, will allow businesses to continue to operate as efficiently as possible should it come to pass."

"If a swine flu pandemic were to occur, absenteeism would be the biggest issue for small businesses, as they may not have sufficient staff in work to ensure continuance of services and products. Also, in cash terms, absenteeism alone could cost small businesses with sick pay schemes an estimated €90 million per annum, based on average earnings of €149 per day / €37,400 per annum. "This takes no account of other direct costs such as the requirement to replace absent staff, or of the indirect costs such as the effect on productivity and the increased work pressure on other colleagues," commented McNally.

Apart from absenteeism, other impacts that may need to be considered are:
· Disruption to customer demand;
· Disruption to business supplies/raw materials;
· Possible disruption to transport/logistic systems;
· Operational changes i.e. m-working/remote access to reduce the risk of infection in the workplace.

"There is an urgent need for business to have a policy to deal with a swine flu pandemic, including a plan which will assess the possible impacts on the business. The plan should be prepared in consultation with employees and their representatives and should consider the financial implications; propose strategic priorities for the business and outline budgets for the development and maintenance of the business continuity in the event of a pandemic. Businesses need to evaluate what activities will be of lower priority; the impact on meetings and travel and identify key individuals and inputs that are required to keep essential activities going."

Firms also need to consider and plan for an alternative organisational structure during the pandemic in order to reduce infection; this may include allowing employees work from home or avail of remote access.

If "swine flu" is to become the pandemic that is forecast, it will have a significant impact on small businesses. In the UK, it is estimated that a small firm employing only three people could expect to have its entire workforce off for up to two weeks – either due to infection or through absences as a result of school closures or transport problems. "Firms do not need to panic but they need to take a common sense approach and be prepared. A Business Continuity Plan will assist firms in focusing on the areas within their business that may be affected and in addressing these issues early will allow firms time to put steps in place to minimise those risks which may threaten the business," concluded McNally.